This is both a question and a statement. We are well on the way to HD TV. The high-def DVD war has just come to an end. A large number of us have complex speaker systems on our TVs that rival that of a multiplex. But something is still wrong. I must admit I am a bit behind the curve. My 37" Sanyo is 5-6 years old. I am still watching DVDs and I have not sprung for the surround sound yet because I don't have convenient placed to put all that. But I am looking and eventually I imagine I will enter the 21st century.
But the problem is that for all the technology we do have there is still a lot we don't have. Why do I have to surf past channel's I will never, never, ever watch? Why do I have to buy a cable "package" with these channels in it? Why do I have to have a universal remote or have multiple remotes? Why is there a tangle of cords in the corner of my room?
The problem with TV is that it has lagged behind everything else in user interface. What has changed in the TV interface in the last 50 years? Nothing! I am hoping that we are on the cusp of a big change. The convergence of the computer and the TV has been brewing for 10-15 years so hopefully someone is getting ready to figure it out.
All we need is one company to innovate us into this revolution and the rest will follow. I think Apple may do it or it may be Google or HP. It is unlikely to be Dell and if you are betting on this change coming from the vicinity of Redmond you really need to put the crack pipe down and get into a rehab program. Today.
I just don't understand what is so difficult! All I need is a simple interface that I can customize. It shows me what I want to see and lets me control when and how I view the content. Can we not simply a have a screen with bay's in the back like a PC tower where we can put different components instead of having to pile up all this junk around the screen?
The biggest piece of all this is that someone has to pry the content provider's mummy-like claw off our throats and allow us to have a la cart control over what we get and pay for. Apple seems poise for this with it's Apple TV and iTunes service. I am concerned that the content providers will shy away from Apple simply from concern about one company having too much control over the industry. What would be nicest would be some kind of consortium that allowed end users to buy content from all producers using various devices and delivery methods.
Well, that is my prognostication for today. I am going to go save up for my next TV.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Jim Lynch over at Extremetech has an interesting article where he discusses the idea that Apple is going to do some kind of eText reader. This idea is dear to my heart and I must admit that I was crestfallen when Mr. Jobs stated at MacWorld, "No one reads anymore." But as Mr. Lynch points out, His Steveness has often downplayed things that are in the works. Most notably the iPhone. So I continue to hope. I still feel that if one company can pull of a really good eText reader device it would be Apple. The thing that has built the iPod is the software, hardware and interface all work so well and the reading device that will make people put down books will need this same magic. The other leg up that Cupertino has is the entrée they have in the educational marketplace.
I say this because I believe that any successful eText reader will have to make itself in the college classroom. First, who buys hundreds of dollars of books twice a year? College students. Who has to carry 20-30 lbs of books around all day from class to class? Right. Who would pay to have one small device that could hold all that and weigh in at 3-4 lbs? You guessed it. The problem in the past with Rocket and Sony was they were black and white so they could not portray pictures, graphs and charts in color that most books use today. Also, screen size was fine if compared to pulp novels but insufficient for textbooks. All this is changing now. Apple has the hardware in the iPod Touch and there are new bigger touch screens coming out; flash memory costs a fraction of what it did even 2 years ago; the iTunes store can easily accomodate book files.
So, while I don't think we will see an iBook this year, we could see one next year coming out in time for the 2009-10 school year. Having made that prediction, if anyone else wants to tackle the market they need to come to an agreement with Amazon and Google who control an awful lot digital content and distribution; they need a color screen with at least 8 x 5 inch dimensions; a touch interface and a price of $350-$400. Let's see what happens.
I say this because I believe that any successful eText reader will have to make itself in the college classroom. First, who buys hundreds of dollars of books twice a year? College students. Who has to carry 20-30 lbs of books around all day from class to class? Right. Who would pay to have one small device that could hold all that and weigh in at 3-4 lbs? You guessed it. The problem in the past with Rocket and Sony was they were black and white so they could not portray pictures, graphs and charts in color that most books use today. Also, screen size was fine if compared to pulp novels but insufficient for textbooks. All this is changing now. Apple has the hardware in the iPod Touch and there are new bigger touch screens coming out; flash memory costs a fraction of what it did even 2 years ago; the iTunes store can easily accomodate book files.
So, while I don't think we will see an iBook this year, we could see one next year coming out in time for the 2009-10 school year. Having made that prediction, if anyone else wants to tackle the market they need to come to an agreement with Amazon and Google who control an awful lot digital content and distribution; they need a color screen with at least 8 x 5 inch dimensions; a touch interface and a price of $350-$400. Let's see what happens.
Friday, January 11, 2008
MacWorld 2008 Prediction
I haven't exactly been burning up this blog with my predictions as I have watched tech this year. However, I stand by my previous predictions regarding Apple's move into the TV/Movie market. I have been surprised that while I am seeing a lot of predictions about a new Apple TV with Blu-Ray and other features that I have not seen anyone predicting what I predict.
I predict that Apple TV will actually become a TV.
We recently got a new iMac and started experiencing the wonders of FrontRow. Within a couple of days our DVD player died from jealousy. So we spent a few days moving the iMac in front of the TV on the stand and using it to watch movies in our living room. What a joy to navigate with that wonderful little remote! Apple has revolutionized the cell phone business in the last six months because it has changed the way that people interact with their cell phone. I think they will do the same with TV. Just imagine a TV that you not only navigate with a simple remote but also that you can program like a computer. That is you can reorger your channels and organize them into favorites lists. Have user specific lists, download movie rentals and all this within the beauty of an Ives-designed piece of furniture!
While I am at it let me predict one other thing. Amazon recently introduced the ebook reader that I have been waiting for for 10 years. One big problem with it is that it looks like something designed 20 years ago. Really, I think that people want their future tech to look like the future not the past. Also, while they are trumpeting 20,000 titles, there are millions of books out in pdf and other formats that are in the public domain. I think that anything that is going to be successful needs to be able to read these things.
I predict that the subnotebook with the touchscreen that everyone is touting is going to have some special features to take on this sector of the market. It may even bring back the iBook name that was misteriously dropped several years ago when the MacBook came out.
So the countdown is on and we will see what Apple will do. One thing is sure, Uncle Steve hasn't run out of ideas yet!
I predict that Apple TV will actually become a TV.
We recently got a new iMac and started experiencing the wonders of FrontRow. Within a couple of days our DVD player died from jealousy. So we spent a few days moving the iMac in front of the TV on the stand and using it to watch movies in our living room. What a joy to navigate with that wonderful little remote! Apple has revolutionized the cell phone business in the last six months because it has changed the way that people interact with their cell phone. I think they will do the same with TV. Just imagine a TV that you not only navigate with a simple remote but also that you can program like a computer. That is you can reorger your channels and organize them into favorites lists. Have user specific lists, download movie rentals and all this within the beauty of an Ives-designed piece of furniture!
While I am at it let me predict one other thing. Amazon recently introduced the ebook reader that I have been waiting for for 10 years. One big problem with it is that it looks like something designed 20 years ago. Really, I think that people want their future tech to look like the future not the past. Also, while they are trumpeting 20,000 titles, there are millions of books out in pdf and other formats that are in the public domain. I think that anything that is going to be successful needs to be able to read these things.
I predict that the subnotebook with the touchscreen that everyone is touting is going to have some special features to take on this sector of the market. It may even bring back the iBook name that was misteriously dropped several years ago when the MacBook came out.
So the countdown is on and we will see what Apple will do. One thing is sure, Uncle Steve hasn't run out of ideas yet!
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
The Future of TV after AppleTV
Last week Mr. Jobs announce the erstwhile iTV as AppleTV. He then announced iPhone and overshadowed his new product. To me, iPhone is a logical continuation of the iPod and has a better than average chance of succeeding due to the shear size of the global mobile phone market. The AppleTV, however, is a whole new thing and I think it will change TV as we know it.
Cable TV is really the same old thing as TV and radio except it is delivered through a controlled medium so one can be charged for it. We have been conditioned now to accept paying $70-$90 per month (over $800 per year) for content that runs through our fingers like water. With the advent of TiVo you can save some of your content, but you have to have to pay a premium to do it.
But imagine, instead of buying 300 channels of digital cable and all the bandwidth to carry all of that each day imagine all that bandwidth turned into pure internet streaming goodness! And instead of more content in a week than you could watch in a lifetime, you buy only the programs you actually want to watch. That, I belive, is the revolution that AppleTV represents.
With AppleTV and the already strong TV offerings on iTunes, Apple is positioned to radically alter the viewing ecosystem of the world. They have some content; they have a somewhat workable pipeline to the consumers and they now have the hardware/software component to make it happen. While others have been waiting to see if Apple Inc. was going to open up and operate a virtual network for its iPhone, I have been wondering if Apple might not open up a virtual cable operation.
The major remaining obstacle to this vision is that we need to clean out that coaxial superhighway of all the content then get the data off the shoulder of the road and out in the express lane. Someone is eventually going to do this and show the cable companies that it is advantageous to them. Few would have believed in October 2001 that Apple was going to change the world of digital music completely in the next 5 years. My bet is that AppleTV is going to do the same to the cable industry in the next 5 years.
Cable TV is really the same old thing as TV and radio except it is delivered through a controlled medium so one can be charged for it. We have been conditioned now to accept paying $70-$90 per month (over $800 per year) for content that runs through our fingers like water. With the advent of TiVo you can save some of your content, but you have to have to pay a premium to do it.
But imagine, instead of buying 300 channels of digital cable and all the bandwidth to carry all of that each day imagine all that bandwidth turned into pure internet streaming goodness! And instead of more content in a week than you could watch in a lifetime, you buy only the programs you actually want to watch. That, I belive, is the revolution that AppleTV represents.
With AppleTV and the already strong TV offerings on iTunes, Apple is positioned to radically alter the viewing ecosystem of the world. They have some content; they have a somewhat workable pipeline to the consumers and they now have the hardware/software component to make it happen. While others have been waiting to see if Apple Inc. was going to open up and operate a virtual network for its iPhone, I have been wondering if Apple might not open up a virtual cable operation.
The major remaining obstacle to this vision is that we need to clean out that coaxial superhighway of all the content then get the data off the shoulder of the road and out in the express lane. Someone is eventually going to do this and show the cable companies that it is advantageous to them. Few would have believed in October 2001 that Apple was going to change the world of digital music completely in the next 5 years. My bet is that AppleTV is going to do the same to the cable industry in the next 5 years.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Another New Blog
Just what the world needs! Another new blog.
And another blog about tech.
However, I am convinced to wade in because of Apple's iPhone. I did have some reservations up to Tuesday afternoon about whether Apple (now officially Apple Inc. instead of Apple Computer Inc.) would really wade into the shark-infested waters of mobile telephony. However, I thought that if they did they would do a number of things which were in fact realized during the applegasm that was the Stevenote address.
I also thought that they introduce a device that would become a digital hub for those homes where multiple computers are in use and they in fact did in the introduction of the new Airport Extreme.
So I thought it would be fun to do some other predictions and discuss the world of tech and see how it come out. So here is iWatchTech.
And another blog about tech.
However, I am convinced to wade in because of Apple's iPhone. I did have some reservations up to Tuesday afternoon about whether Apple (now officially Apple Inc. instead of Apple Computer Inc.) would really wade into the shark-infested waters of mobile telephony. However, I thought that if they did they would do a number of things which were in fact realized during the applegasm that was the Stevenote address.
I also thought that they introduce a device that would become a digital hub for those homes where multiple computers are in use and they in fact did in the introduction of the new Airport Extreme.
So I thought it would be fun to do some other predictions and discuss the world of tech and see how it come out. So here is iWatchTech.
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